Smoking ban advocates always say that state-wide smoking bans are needed for the health of hospitality workers and to prevent their premature deaths.

Here is a quick way to approximate how many of these premature deaths would be prevented in your state.

First some needed information.

How many workers are involved:
http://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oessrcst.htm
According to US Dept of Labor data,there are about 100,000 food servers and bartenders in full-service restaurants and alcohol only bars in Illinois.

Most fast food and some other places are already smokefree.
If 20% of them smoke(state average) there are 80,000 nonsmokers.
12,500,000 people in Illinois divided by 80,000 is 156.

SHS caused deaths:
Health advocates say that about 50,000 people die each year from SHS exposure.

Your states percentage:
Divide your states population by the 300 million US population.

For instance Wisconsin has 5.5 million people or about 2%.

Determine the number of SHS deaths in your state.

For instance Wis. would be about 1,000 SHS deaths(50,000 x.02% = 1,000).

Determine the number of 'premature' deaths.

The 50,000 SHS deaths is a CDC SAMMEC generated number.
None of the SAMMEC SHS caused deaths occur under the age of 35.

About 60% of the SAMMEC smokers deaths occur at age 70 or later.
http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=5472

Anyone 70 years old was born about 1940.

The average life expectancy at birth for 1940 was about 63 years.

A death can not be called premature when the person has already exceeded their life expectancy at birth by at least 7 years.

That 60% would be exceeding their life expectancy at birth by at least 7 years.

Find the number of premature SHS deaths for your state:
For instance Wis. would have 1,000 x 40% or 400 deaths.

Determine the number of affected hospitality wokers.
In Illinois it was 1 per 156 people.
12,500,000 people in Illinois divided by 80,000 is 156.

For Wisconsin it would be 400 SHS deaths divided by 156 or about 2.6 premature hospitality worker deaths possibly prevented by a state-wide smoking ban.

To make the number even less important,consider this.
http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=5472

The CDC included in its death toll diseases for which the relative risk to smokers was statistically insignificant,about 39 percent of them.

For Wis.,the SHS deaths would be 2.56 x .6% = 1.6 deaths prevented for the whole state!!

In Illinois that would give 3 premature deaths possibly prevented by a state ban that has cost 10's of million of dollars in lost tax revenue and has cost hundreds of lost jobs.

To put those 3 possible deaths in perspective, there are about 1,400 auto deaths per year in Illinois.
1,400 divided by 156 = 9 hospitality workers getting killed in traffic accidents every year,3 times as many as might possibly die from SHS exposure at work.

Summary:
1)50,000 x your states population percentage of US total.
Example: Wis is 50,000 x .22% = 1,000.

2)Your states SHS total x .4%(possibly premature deaths).
Example: Wis. is 1,000 x .4% = 400.

3)that number divided by 156(workers per total state population).
Example: Wis. is 400 divided by 156 = 2.6 possibly premature deaths.

4) Then for the Hell of it,multiply that number by the .6% that are left after removing bogus diseases.
Example: Wis. is 2.6 x .6% = 1.6 possibly prevented premature deaths due to SHS exposure.

So the Wisconsin ban might prevent 2.6 premature deaths each year;
but, if Wis. has 100,000 hospitality workers and each one loses 20% of his/her income, then according to http://www.bmj.com/cgi/content/full/320/7239/898 each 1% decline in income causes 21/100,000 more premature deaths, or 420 premature deaths in the state if income loss is 20%.

Actually,Wisconsin's population is 44% of Illinois's and has about 44,000 hospitality workers.

420 x 44% = 185 premature deaths if the loss in wages is 20%.
185 minus the possible 2.6 prevented premature deaths is an extra 183 premature deaths that would be due to a statewide smoking ban in Wisconsin.

If they lost only 10%, the deaths would be 92.5, minus the possibly prevented 2.6 deaths= 90 excess premature deaths caused by the smoking ban!!!

A smoking Ban will be good for the health of hospitality workers in Wisconsin,what a lie!!!!

quote:

Actually,Wisconsin's population is 44% of Illinois's and has about 44,000 hospitality workers.

Only 44,000? I remember trying to find out how many bars were in Wisconsin not too long ago.

Although I never found a concrete answer, some government official thought there were about 25,000 places where you could get a drink (restaurants, bars).

You'll never die of thirst in Wisconsin.

These posts were not meant to be a scientific study,they are only a means of doing a quick approximation of the death cost-benefits on hospitality workers when there is a statewide total smoking ban.

I do not know exactly how many hospitality workers there are in those places;but,44,000 nonsmokers(say 20%) would mean there are about 55,000 total,or, about 1 per every 75 adults in the state.

This quick approximation shows that there would be about 35 to 70 deaths caused for every one possible life saved by a total smoking ban.

This would hold true as a general number for most states, Illinois would run from 40 to 80 deaths for each one possible death prevented.

Squeezer,
For some reason I seem to be unable to post over at Forces' Tavern.

Perhaps you could be so kind as to put this info into what you would consider a reasonabe format and post it somewhere over there???

I would really appreciate it!!
Gary K.XXXXX

Gary,
I've never posted at FORCES Tavern so I don't know if I'd be any better off than you in getting them posted.

On your posts: I guess I read them too fast. I thought you were using actual numbers.

But I'm still positive that nobody ever dies from thirst in my state.

quote:

I thought you were using actual numbers.

..................
Most of the numbers are reasonably accurate.

It is hilarious when,with a straight face, the CDC says:
During 2000--2004, smoking resulted in an estimated annual average of 269,655 deaths among males and 173,940 deaths among females in the United States.

That includes SHS deaths for which there is no real known number and which have been seriously disputed.

At least I state that my numbers should only be used as an approximation.

"Although I never found a concrete answer, some government official thought there were about 25,000 places where you could get a drink (restaurants, bars)."
.......................
http://cleanairquality.blogspot.com/
Minnesota Licensed Beverage Association interim director Tony Chesak said it's clear to him the ban is causing bars across the state to fail.

I'd say, realistically, 200 to 300 licensed establishments, at least, have closed.
- Tony Chesak"I'd say, realistically, 200 to 300 licensed establishments, at least, have closed," Chesak said. "I would think that would be a conservative number."

Membership in the association dropped about 25 percent this year.
..................
If 300 is 25%, then the total number of bars in Minnesota would be about 1,200.

Wisc. and Minn have about the same population.

I do not think that there are over 20,000 places to drink other than bars in Minnesota or Wisconsin.

According to MANTA: http://www.manta.com/mb_43_C4_24/restaurants_bars/minnesota

There are 9,120 Restaurants and Bars in Minnesota. (1,124 Bars and Taverns)
This is probably close, but not completely accurate.

In Wisconsin, it's listed as 14,413. (4,477 Bars and Taverns)

Here in Ohio, according to the same source, it's 24,162 Restaurants and Bars in the state, BUT, ...the Ohio Restaurant Association lists the total number at 27,148. (3,216 Bars and Taverns)

Thank you very much and I hope everyone has a nice Thanksgiving!!

quote:

Originally posted by LightningBoy:
In Wisconsin...(4,477 Bars and Taverns)

Here in Ohio...(3,216 Bars and Taverns)

Wisconsin has 1/2 the population of Ohio, but more bars and taverns. LOL

Smoking bans in Illinois and Minn are good for the bar business,especially if you have a Wis bar or tavern near the borders with Ill and Minn.

You will never have to go thirsty in Wis, wonder where I have heard that before.

Anti-smokers are always claiming that only 20% of adults are smokers and that bans that result in more nonsmokers going out will be good for businesses.

However,about 45% of households have one or more smoking adults in them.

http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0999/is_7257_321...g_1?tag=artBody;col1

If dad or mom do not want to frequent a place because of a smoking ban, that will take away a lot more than just 20% of business.

This also leaves a lot fewer customers to be new and pick up the losses.

I know for a fact(29 years of marriage); that, “If Mama ain’t happy, ain’t nobody happy!!” If Mama does not want to go out to a place,we do not go.

Some times it even works the other way.

This even sometimes works when folks are dating.

Times are a little difficult, if places are not fun to go out and be in, you can save a lot of money by drinking and dining at home.

There is never a ‘level playing field’ when comparing the cost of going out with the cost of dining or drinking at home!!

For instance:
2 meals at $15 per meal = $30
4 glasses(a bottle) of wine at $5 per glass= $20

Food and drink = $50
20% tip = $10

Total= $60

Same meals as take out = $30
Bottle of wine at store= $10

Total for home = $40

I have saved 50% of what I spent and I do not have to leave the wife sitting alone(MAJOR NO-NO!!!) while I have a smoke.

The business may not lose much;but,consider the servers.

2 such losses a night is $20 in tips per night, 5 shifts per week is $100 per week.

50 work weeks per year = $5,000 lost wages per year.

Smoking bans are for the health of the servers.

The mental and emotional trauma involved in losing $5,000 of one’s salary is not going to be very ‘healthy’!!


That mental and emotional trauma is going to cause a lot more 'health problems' than being exposed to SHS, especially if the server is a smoker or is married to a smoker.

According to MANTA: http://www.manta.com/mb_43_C4_24/restaurants_bars/minnesota

There are 9,120 Restaurants and Bars in Minnesota. (1,124 Bars and Taverns)
This is probably close, but not completely accurate.

In Wisconsin, it’s listed as 14,413. (4,477 Bars and Taverns)

Lets say that 45% of the about 10,000 restaurants are already non-smoking= 5,500 restaurants that allow smoking.

5,500 restaurants plus the about 4,500 bars and taverns = 10,000 businesses that allow smoking.

If they averaged 6 servers per business, that is about 60,000 servers.

Non-smokers(say 80%) would be about 50,000.

That is .009% of the state’s total population.

Wisconsin has about 2% of the total US population.

Antis claim that SHS causes about 50,000 deaths per year in the US,at 2%, Wisconsin would have 1,000 of them.

The 50,000 SHS deaths is a CDC SAMMEC generated number.
None of the SAMMEC SHS caused deaths occur under the age of 35.

About 60% of the SAMMEC smokers deaths occur at age 70 or later.
http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=5472

Only 40%,or 400 deaths in Wisconsin,would be in the age group that includes most servers.

400 deaths x .009% = 3.6 non-smoking servers,in the whole state, that would have their deaths prevented by not being exposed to SHS!!

According to http://www.bmj.com/cgi/content/full/320/7239/898 each 1% decline in income causes 21/100,000 more premature deaths, or 420/100,000 premature deaths if income loss is 20%.

A $5,000 loss(see previous post) is probably about 20% of what most servers in Wisconsin earn.

60,000 affected servers would result in about 252 premature deaths statewide.
(420 x 60% = 252)

A state-wide,to level the playing field, smoking ban would cause 252 premature deaths in order to prevent 4!!!
There would be 248 servers dying each year in Wisconsin because antis do not like the smell of smoke.

Antis welcome those deaths because the anti-smokers are slimy scum and the politicians that push the antis’ agenda are no better!!

The numbers below would hold true for most states.

Any law should be passed only after a careful cost/benefit examination.

Even if Wisconsin servers had an average income of $50,000,the number of deaths caused to the number of claimed deaths prevented would be about 30 to 1.

That alone makes a state-wide smoking ban a very bad law!!!

In Illinois,the Cook Co./Chicago area already had a smoking ban when the state-wide ban was voted into law.

For the rest of Illinois the deaths to be caused by a 10% loss of income to servers to the deaths possibly prevented is 37 to 1!!

At a 20% average loss of income, that is 222 servers dying so the scumbag,slimy anti-smokers can have their way!!!

Wisconsin:
As shown above:”400 deaths x .009% = 3.6 non-smoking servers,in the whole state, that would,possibly-perhaps-maybe, have their deaths prevented by not being exposed to SHS!!”

50,000 nonsmoking servers and 4 deaths possibly-maybe prevented by a state-wide smoking ban.

Antis would say that those 4 possible deaths are good reason for a ban.

But, just how large a number and how serious a problem is involved?

The 4 deaths is 1 death per 12,500 nonsmoking servers.

Here:
http://www.nsc.org/research/odds.aspx

Odds of Death Due to Injury, United States, 2005

Type of Accident or Manner of Injury- Deaths- One Year Odds

Motor-Vehicle Accidents- 45,343- 6,539

50,000 nonsmoking servers and 1/6,539 odds = 7.6(8) deaths in auto accidents per year.

That is TWICE the possible SHS exposure deaths.
These are body-bag numbers;not, computer generated guesses.

Considering that those servers work 40 hours per week and at most spend 20 hours per week in their cars, those servers are 4 times as apt to die in an auto accident as from SHS exposure.
Also,as seen above,not one smoking death is below the age of 35.
The AVERAGE age at death from auto accidents is 39.

When was the last time that the news talked about a smoker lighting up in a business and a mother and her two children being rushed to the hospital where they were pronounced dead on arrival!!

SHS ‘related’ diseases all have many risk factors and SHS is just one of many.

Auto accident injuries are single cause,people end up in the ER and a car wreck is the ONLY reason.

There are 100 people injured people sent to the ER for each auto accident death.

45,000 deaths and over 4.5 million cases requiring emergency department visits.

http://www.wrongdiagnosis.com/a/automobile_accidents_injury/stats.htm
Prevalence and incidence statistics for Automobile accidents injury:

Incidence (annual) of Automobile accidents injury: 4,563,000 cases requiring emergency department visits.

I have never heard of a server being rushed to the ER just because someone lit a cigarette;however, there will be 800 nonsmoking servers going to the ER because of auto accidents each year.

Anti-smoker politicians tell us that bans are needed for the health of the servers;yet, their driving to and from work is much more dangerous to their health and lives!!